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Saturday, September 18, 2021

Is Nvidia Stock A Buy After Retaking Key Support Level?

Nvidia (NVDA) chips power a future of self-driving cars and cloud gaming. NVDA stock rallied on strong earnings and a stronger-than-expected outlook, but supply constraints remain. Is Nvidia stock a good buy now?


For those looking for top large-cap stocks to buy now, here’s a deep dive into NVDA stock.

NVDA Stock Basics

The fabless chipmaker pioneered graphics processing units, or GPUs, to make video games more realistic. It’s expanding in AI chips, used in supercomputers, data centers, drug development and driverless cars.

For example, it will supply the chip that acts as the “brain” for the Nio (NIO) ET7, which will be Nio’s first autonomous driving model when it arrives in Q1 2022. And Nvidia already supplies Amazon (AMZN) Web Services with chips for data centers.

Last September, Nvidia unveiled new GeForce gaming GPUs, touting a generational leap in performance. In April, Nvidia unveiled its first CPU, called Grace, which uses chip designs from U.K.-based Arm for high-end computing and AI applications.

Nvidia’s proposed $40 billion Arm takeover is under scrutiny in the U.K.

Nvidia’s GPUs act as accelerators for central processing unit, or CPUs, made by other companies. With its own CPU, Nvidia will offer a more complete system for data centers, directly challenging processor giants Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

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Nvidia Stock Technical Analysis

On July 20, Nvidia completed a 4-to-1 stock split.

Nvidia earns an unbeatable IBD Composite Rating of 99. In other words, it has outperformed 99% of all other stocks in terms of combined technical and fundamental metrics. In fact, NVDA belongs to the IBD Leaderboard, a list of stocks with the most potential for big gains.

Investors generally should focus on stocks with CRs of 90 or even 95.

Shares rebounded off the 10-week moving average, which offered a buy point around 181.39, according to MarketSmith chart analysis. Nvidia stock is still within buy range, which goes to 200.08. The chipmaker quickly reached a 20%-25% profit-taking goal from a May breakout past a traditional buy point, then pulled back.

The relative strength line for NVDA stock has ticked up but remains below highs. A rising RS line means that a stock is outperforming the S&P 500 index. It is the blue line in the chart shown.

The Accumulation/Distribution Rating is a B-, a sign of moderate buying by institutions over the past 13 weeks. The chip stock boasts strong institutional backing: As of June, 4,482 funds owned NVDA shares. In fact, Nvidia shows eight quarters of rising fund ownership, the IBD Stock Checkup tool shows.

Nvidia stock owns an RS Rating of 89, meaning it has outperformed 89% of all stocks over the past year. The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) holds both Nvidia and AMD stock.

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Nvidia Earnings And Fundamental Analysis

Nvidia’s EPS Rating is a superior 96 and its SMR Rating is an A, on a scale of A+ to a worst E. The EPS rating compares a company’s earnings growth to other stocks, and its SMR Rating gauges sales growth, profit margins and return on equity.

In Q1, Nvidia earnings rocketed 103% as sales jumped 84%. The year-over-year improvement on both the top and bottom lines was the highest in four quarters. Gaming chip revenue soared 106%. Data-center chip sales jumped 79%, due in part to the Mellanox purchase last year. In addition, Nvidia guided revenue higher for the current quarter.

Analysts expect EPS to jump 30% in all of fiscal 2022 as revenue increases 49%, according to FactSet. This despite Nvidia, like other fabless chipmakers, facing supply constraints at chip foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).  On July 15, Taiwan Semiconductor said it expects chip supply to remain tight into 2022.

Out of 29 analysts covering NVDA stock, 28 rate it a buy, one has a hold and none has a sell, according to TipRanks.

The pandemic fueled demand for Nvidia chips in home computing, video games and data centers. Now chips are in such hot demand that it’s led to a global shortage.

Nvidia remains constrained on chip supplies, though the situation is said to be improving.

The chip shortage hit automakers especially hard. Nvidia makes chips for car infotainment and autonomous driving systems.

As cloud gaming grows around the world, Nvidia’s new cloud gaming service could become a growth driver. Rival services include Google Stadia, Microsoft Xbox Network and Amazon Luna.

This year, Nvidia began making dedicated chips for mining cryptocurrencies. Its cryptocurrency mining processors, or CMPs, launched in February and generated $155 million in sales by April.

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Rival Chip Stocks

Nvidia and AMD are established leaders in the semiconductor industry.

Among top chip stocks, Nvidia helps to lead IBD’s Electronics-Semiconductor Fabless industry group. Fabless companies contract with foundries to make the chips they design. Other chip companies own their fabrication plants.

Besides NVDA, fabless chip stocks include Qualcomm, Broadcom (AVGO) and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR). The fabless group ranks a dull No. 53 out of 197 industry groups, but Nvidia is a highly rated chip stock within it.

For the best returns, investors should focus on companies that are leading the market and their own industry group.

Is Nvidia Stock A Buy Now?

On a fundamental level, Nvidia earnings and sales are rising again after sharp declines. Recent acquisitions expand its opportunity in emerging growth areas, such as data centers, automated cars and cloud gaming. The adoption of cryptocurrencies could further stoke demand for Nvidia chips.

Meanwhile, new gaming chips underscore Nvidia’s continued dominance in core markets.

Nvidia is a leader in the fabless chip group. As the global chip shortage lingers, it could take months for the supply of Nvidia GPUs to catch up with demand.

Leaderboard stock NVDA offers a 181.39 buy point after rebounding from the 10-week line. It’s within proper buying range and backed by a strong RS line.

Bottom line: Nvidia stock is a buy right now. As a leading chip stock with exposure to top end markets in data centers and gaming, Nvidia is always one to watch.

Check out IBD Stock Lists and other IBD content to find dozens of the best stocks to buy or watch.


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